Solar energy is all about us it comes readily harvestable in the form of Wind power and Solar.
Solar is maturing and combined with wind power and battery storage which is set to rapidly decline in price will give us a significant proportion of our 100% renewable grid.
We need to move on this now as we're electrifying our homes kicking out gas and electrifying transportation with electric vehicle purhcases up 200% in the past 12 months.
We'll have 12 million houses by 2030 and we'll need 10kW per house average, with todays' efficient panels that's about 20 panels per house. Because not all houses have the same access to solar energy it will mean some houses will have 40kW (or 80 odd panels) while others will have 20kW, 13kW, 8kW or 5kW or some none. On top of this 10kW per house target we've got huge opportunity on commercial buildings.
The national solar panel plan will have solar installed on most buildings and most orientations. When we get beyond the thinking of trying to extract the most solar energy out of one panel on its own but instead extract the most energy out of one roof we start to appreciate and understand the benefits of north east south west and horizontal (flat) systems, said Matthew Wright Renewable Energy lead Pure Electric.
In the plan we'll have a fair economic model on how to take solar when required and how to defer solar production with batteries and electric vehicle charing along with loads domestic and industrial that can be scheduled or runtime brought forward to sunnier periods in the winter months along with when to curtail or limit production.
With big solar on the grid basically 120GW with a target of 30GW to grid minimum most of the time we've got significant production occurring even under clouds. We call this cloud power.
Grid operators will need to implement dynamic exports and be forced to offer mandatory 2.5kW export limits for all connections.
Mandatory export limit that the grid operators will have to offer will be 2.5kW but only dropping export limits as penetration levels rise. Dynamic exports will allow for exports to reach local distribution and transmission maximums while supporting areas that are suffering from inclement weather for solar production.
Each small site set to 25% of rated maximum for guaranteed export limit with dynamic exports for the rest. Dynamic exports will reach upto maximum available on any site and at the beginning and end of the day will almost certainly be unrestricted.
A national solar panel system basically oversized by 3x - 4x to present solar as a more solid integration option meaning early morning late afternoon more likely to hit demand. The extra solar should be thought of like a peak power plant on a conventional grid. Ie a gas peaking plant with a capacity factor utilisation of 8% is funded under our current model.
Excess market should develop with plant that is built for small windows of curtailment in the winter months ie 20 days a year. This will mean production using very cheap energy most of the year from solar and wind.
Deferrable load is part and parcel with electric vehicles. They really support a highly renewable grid.
Electric car charging is deferrable load but to a lesser extent V2G/V2H via medium speed / capacity ie 7.3kW / 11kW type 2 chargers will be an available option to call on forming reserves / significant capacity.
Current 5kW / 10kW export limits not fit dir purpose. Export limits need to rise then transition to dynamic export limits as soon as practicable.
Export limit should be 25% of panel rating with dynamic exports above that so if you have a 20kW system on a house then the guaranteed export limit offered will be 20 / 4 = 5kW but most of the time you'll be doing much higher than that.
Those customers with existing systems and an export limit that’s more than 50% of rated are going to have to get that system doubled so as to meet the 50% of rated rule within 5 years or have that export limit reduced to 50% of rated.
Example a customer has a 6.6kW system with guaranteed 5kW export limit. To maintain that export limit within 5 years they must bring that system up to a minimum of 10kW of rated output (based on the panel ratings.
Note as previously postulated dynamic exports will be available to all customers above their guaranteed export limit.
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